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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd