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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

However this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still