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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.