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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."